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☆ America's big stagflation scare is over
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe US economy looks to have steered clear of danger after the specter of stagflation spooked markets and put analysts on edge in recent weeks. Further, average hourly earnings unexpectedly declined to 0.2%. And since elevated labor costs are part of the stagflation equation, the dip in average hourly earnings also signaled a period of languid growth will be avoided. It sent alarm bells ringing around stagflation, which occurs when inflation stays high despite a cooling economy.

Persons: —, specter, Marko Kolanovic, Mohamed El, Bank of America's Michael Harnett —, Harnett Organizations: Service, Business, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Bank of America's

☆ 3 issues that could make or break the US economy over the next year, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mohamed El-Erian named three key risks that will determine where US growth is headed in 2024 through 2025. That includes changes to the Fed's inflation target and low-income consumer spending. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementIf Wall Street was wrong about recession odds in 2023 and 2024, forecasting for next year won't be any easier, Cambridge economist Mohamed El-Erian wrote in Project Syndicate. "Given high interest rates and some creditors' loss of enthusiasm, this cohort's willingness to consume will hinge on whether the labor market remains tight," El-Erian wrote.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, he's Organizations: Service, Project Syndicate, Federal Reserve, El Locations: Cambridge, El

☆ Mohamed El-Erian: Hoping the Fed delivers two rate cuts starting July
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMohamed El-Erian: Hoping the Fed delivers two rate cuts starting JulyMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the latest market trends, his expectations from the Fed, and more.

Persons: Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ’ College , Cambridge

☆ The 'misery index' often predicts who'll win the White House — but it may be broken
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

But there are signs the gauge may now be broken, with many people still gloomy about the economy. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . But Main Street has taken a decidedly gloomier view, with recession worries persisting and big-name companies ramping up layoffs. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: it's, —, Paul Krugman, Mohamed El, hasn't Organizations: Service, Business

☆ Small business sentiment is the lowest in over a decade as inflation proves sticky
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Confidence among US small business owners is at an 11-year low, according to NFIB. High inflation, coupled with hiring woes and tight financial conditions, have dealt a blow to business. AdvertisementUS small business owners' confidence slumped to its lowest level in 11 years in March amid escalating inflationary pressures and sluggish sales expectations, according to the National Federation of Independent Business. The small business optimism index dropped to 88.5, hitting its lowest since December 2012, per NFIB's latest report. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, It's Organizations: Service, National Federation of Independent Business, Business

☆ A growing chorus of experts don't think a rate cut is coming in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Investors are starting to take seriously the idea that the Fed might not cut interest rates in 2024. At this point, investors are viewing economic strength as ultimately good news for the stock market, if that means a recession is delayed. AdvertisementFrom seven, to three, to now potentially zero, projected interest rate cuts in 2024 are quickly going out of style on Wall Street. So a delay in interest rate cuts, on paper, would suggest lower stock prices. And better-than-expected first quarter profits have helped put a floor on a stock market that is trading near record highs, even as talks of interest rate cuts fade.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Mohamed El, Torsten Slok, Slok, Ken Fisher Organizations: Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Bank of America

☆ Fed caution may be justified if the labor market starts to deteriorate. Here's why that could happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

A strong jobs outlook raises the potential of greater inflation pressures, meaning the central bank might be less eager to ease policy. Indeed, there are some signs that the labor market's strength may not be as robust as the headline nonfarm payrolls numbers indicate. Economists both on Wall Street and at the Fed suspect swelling immigration numbers are playing a role in boosting employment and keeping the labor market so tight. With political clamoring intensifying for the U.S. to tighten its border controls, the resilience of the labor market then could be jeopardized depending on how large a role immigration is playing. "Another strong report raises the potential that the deterioration in labor markets we have been expecting will be avoided.

Persons: nonfarm, Seema Shah, Shah, Mohamed El, There's, Goldman Sachs, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Asset Management, Allianz, Fed, CNBC, Wall, Congressional, Citigroup, Citi Locations: it's, Italy, U.S, South America, Central America, Mexico

☆ Economist El-Erian says the Fed has turned into a play-by-play commentator
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

The U.S. Federal Reserve has become too data dependent and has lost sight of its overall strategy, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, said Friday. The economist told CNBC that a longer-term, more strategic outlook could see policymakers settle on a new inflation target of closer to 3%. "Rather than be strategic, this Fed is overly data dependent, and has turned into a play-by-play commentator," El-Erian told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Spring Forum in Italy. "The Fed should be strategic, the Fed should provide a strategic anchor, a stabilizer." The U.S. Federal Reserve did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, CNBC's Steve Sedgwick, That's Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Allianz, CNBC Locations: Italy

☆ This Fed is 'overly data-dependent,' says Allianz chief economic advisor
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis Fed is 'overly data-dependent,' says Allianz chief economic advisorMohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, says the U.S. Federal Reserve has "turned into a play-by-play commentator—and that's not the role of the Fed."

Persons: Mohamed El, —, that's Organizations: Allianz, U.S . Federal

☆ The Fed's first rate cut is still on pace for June with inflation dropping like a rock, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's first rate cut is still on track to come in June, Fundstrat's Tom Lee said. Yet investors are only pricing in a 57% chance of a rate cut by June, per the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementThe Fed is still poised to issue its first rate cut in June as the pace of inflation continues to slow, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. All that points to a Fed that could be poised to cut rates sooner than markets are expecting, which is good news for stocks. Meanwhile, just 57% of investors are expecting the Fed to issue the first rate cut in June.

Persons: Fundstrat's Tom Lee, —, Tom Lee, Lee, That's, Mohamed El Organizations: Service, Fed, University of Michigan's, France —, Traders Locations: France

☆ Chair Powell says the Fed isn’t more tolerant of higher inflation. Some economists disagree
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some economists interpreted that as a sign that the Fed is now more tolerant of higher inflation. Powell pushed back on the perception that the central bank has grown more comfortable with inflation being higher for longer than expected in his post-meeting news conference. and my sense coming out of this month’s meeting was that Fed Chair Powell wants to get this easing cycle going sooner rather than later. What’s allowing the Fed to be patient or more tolerant of higher inflation? They’re willing to essentially look through some of the bumpiness in the inflation data at the beginning of the year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, That’s, Powell, “, ” Powell, “ We’re, Mohamed El, Erian, ”, Bell, Lydia Boussour, they’re, What’s, we’ve, Nathaniel Meyersohn, Read, Levi Strauss, Tupperware Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Financial Times, Fed, Home Depot, Home, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Maine Foods, Dave, Buster’s Entertainment, US Labor Department, US Commerce Department, Stanford University Locations: EY, Cal

Kevin Plank, founder of Under Armour, during a CNBC interview on "Mad Money" on Feb. 28, 2018. Under Armour announced on Wednesday that CEO Stephanie Linnartz is stepping down from her role just over a year after she started, and founder Kevin Plank will return as the brand's chief executive. Linnartz took over as Under Armour's CEO in February 2023 after spending nearly 30 years at Marriott International, most recently as its president. Plank will remain a director on Under Armour's board but will hand over the chair position to Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, Pimco's parent company. In a statement, Linnartz said she feels "honored" to have served as Under Armour's CEO.

Persons: Kevin Plank, Armour, Stephanie Linnartz, Linnartz, Plank, Mohamed El, Stephanie Organizations: CNBC, Marriott International, Allianz, Armour's

☆ Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Robinhood, SentinelOne, Under Armour and more
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

UiPath — Shares popped 8% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat analysts' expectations. UiPath posted adjusted earnings of 22 cents per share on $405 million in revenue, higher than the 16 cents per share on $384 million in revenue analysts polled by LSEG, formerly Refinitiv, had anticipated. SentinelOne — The cybersecurity name slipped 10% after posting guidance for the first quarter and full year that came in line with analysts' estimates, per LSEG. Robinhood — The trading platform's stock added about 8% after the company reported its selected monthly operating data for February 2024. The company posted a wider-than-expected loss in 2023 and missed its production targets by a considerable margin.

Persons: UiPath, SentinelOne, Armour, Stephanie Linnartz, Kevin Plank, Mohamed El, Robinhood, Fisker, Lennar, LSEG, —, Christina Cheddar, Berk, Darla Mercado Organizations: LSEG, Street

☆ Biggest mistake the Fed can make is continue to be too data dependent, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBiggest mistake the Fed can make is continue to be too data dependent, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, what to expect from February's CPI data, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and more.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge

☆ Markets are hitting record highs. And economists like El-Erian and Krugman can't shake off their fears
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Stellar prices for gold have also stolen investor attention, with the precious metal scaling a new record of over $2,100. The record-breaking numbers for markets, however, haven't stopped some investors from worrying about three key issues. Inflation resurgenceAfter months of cooling, U.S inflation is proving itself to be more stubborn than experts had predicted. That's despite the Federal Reserve embarking on an aggressive monetary policy campaign over the past year, in a bid to tame consumer price pressures from their 40-year highs. Ariel Investments' Vice Chair Charlie Bobrinskoy told CNBC markets are not focused on China's residential real estate problems.

Persons: Michael M, haven't, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Mark Zandi's, Mark Zandi, Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, Doom, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Mohamed El, Erian, Ariel, Charlie Bobrinskoy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Federal, stoke, Allianz, Bloomberg, CNBC, El, Ariel Investments Locations: New York City, U.S, China

☆ Supply-side issues make getting inflation to 2% 'really, really difficult', says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSupply-side issues make getting inflation to 2% 'really, really difficult', says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the Fed's interest rate path outlook, latest market trends, and more.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge

☆ The Fed is 'held hostage' by data and risks sparking financial instability, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's over-dependence on data risks financial instability, Mohamed El-Erian wrote in a recent op-ed for Bloomberg. He says the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's strict adherence to data is sapping it of policy alternatives, economist Mohamed El-Erian wrote for Bloomberg on Friday. Many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. He expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged through 2024, citing that neither inflation nor the US economy is sufficiently cooling.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, Torsten Slok Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Fed

☆ Hot CPI data was a 'wake-up call' to people who got carried away, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHot CPI data was a 'wake-up call' to people who got carried away, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the hotter-than-expected CPI data, the impact on the Fed's rate path decision, and more.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge

☆ The risk of a recession could flare up if the Fed waits too long to cut rates, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

At this point, only a disorderly financial adjustment or a central bank policy mistake could tip the balance, such as if the Fed hesitates to cut rates when the time comes. AdvertisementJanuary's inflation data did give the central bank reason to hold for longer, as Tuesday's report came in hotter than investors anticipated. Failure to come through with three cuts would also be a policy mistake. Generally, the US economy is suffering a "stock problem," as the market's rally been built on excessive Fed cut expectations. Instead, the CPI data provided a wake-up call for carried-away investors, El-Erian said, which explains Tuesday's market overreaction to the report.

Persons: —, Mohamed El, Erian, they've, Dow Jones Organizations: Service, Federal, CNBC, Business, Queens ' College

☆ El-Erian, Krugman and other economists have very different opinions on China’s struggling economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Chinese leader Xi Jinping said on New Year's Eve that the nation's economy had grown "more resilient and dynamic this year." Meanwhile, famed hedge fund manager and founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital Kyle Bass said the country's heavily indebted property market has triggered a wave of defaults among public developers. That's a problem, given China's real estate market can account for as much as a fifth of the nation's GDP. "This is just like the U.S. financial crisis on steroids," Bass said, referring to China's default-ridden property market. The Institute of International Finance said Beijing has the policy capacity to push China's economy toward its growth potential and stuck to its above consensus forecast for 2024 growth at 5%, in a recent blog post.

Persons: Eswar Prasad, Mohamed El, Xi Jinping, there's, Paul Krugman, Krugman, Kristalina Georgieva, Hayman, Hayman Capital Kyle Bass, Bass, isn't Organizations: Future Publishing, CSI, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Allianz, International Monetary Fund, Nikkei, New York Times, Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF, Dallas, Hayman Capital, of International Finance Locations: Jiangsu, China, Nikkei Asia, U.S, Europe, tatters, Davos, Beijing

☆ The Fed isn't going to cut rates as aggressively as the market thinks, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed isn't going to cut rates as aggressively as the market thinks, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to preview the Fed's two-day policy meeting this week, rate path outlook, latest market trends, and more.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge

☆ It's a make-or-break week for the stock market. Here's why.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, we're looking at why this is such a big week for the stock market . The big storyA week to rememberThree trends in the stock market are bound to vault equities higher in 2024, Wall Street strategists say. Getty ImagesWe're less than a month into 2024, but this week could determine the market's trajectory for the rest of the year. Tim Cook AppleThe information overload comes amid an uncertain time for Big Tech and the broader stock market.

Persons: —, Netflix's, it's, Matthew Fox, Jerome Powell's, Tim Cook, Tesla, haven't, we'll, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Read, Jamie Dimon, Larry Downing, Jennifer Piepszak, Marianne Lake, Troy Rohrbaugh, Jeffrey Gundlach, Buckle, Mohamed El, isn't, Erian, Lyra, Maven, Tyler Le, Liquidators, Max Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, Big Tech, Microsoft, Fed, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Google, optimist, JPMorgan, DoubleLine, Prime, Comcast, Warner Bros, Lyra Health, Hong, Alaska Airlines Locations: India, Japan, Hong Kong, China, Alaska

☆ 3 reasons the US economy's strength right now is a head-fake, according to Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The narrative that the US economy could achieve a soft landing still faces challenges, Mohamed El-Erian told Bloomberg TV. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementMarket confidence in a US soft landing ignores three vulnerabilities that still pose a recessionary threat, economist Mohamed El-Erian told Bloomberg TV. The bank expects a noticeable mid-year slowdown, contrasting Wall Street's soft landing consensus. Secondly, inflation will also keep a recession on standby, as it's no given that it won't rebound, El-Erian warned.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, it's, Wells, November's, I've, Yemen's Houthi Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Europe, Red, Africa

☆ Why that ‘last mile’ of the inflation fight may be more challenging
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Inflation measures how fast prices are rising for goods and services — anything from concert tickets and haircuts to groceries and furniture. That means further broad disinflation likely won't come from consumer goods, economists said. In fact, attacks by Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea threaten to disrupt a key transit corridor and may trigger higher goods inflation if it persists, El-Erian explained. While down from more than 7% last year, services inflation still sits at 5.3%. Why this may all be 'nonsense'Not all economists think the last mile of disinflation will be harder than what came before, however.

Persons: Robyn Beck, Mohamed El, We're, Gargi Chaudhuri, Houthi, Erian, Chaudhuri, Mark Zandi, Sarah House, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Afp, Getty, Allianz, Queens ' College, University of Cambridge, CNBC, Americas, BlackRock, Finance, of Labor Statistics, Labor, Moody's Analytics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Capital Economics Locations: Los Angeles, U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ Inflation is stuck and the Fed can't lower prices without damaging the economy, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation looks to be stuck above the Fed's target rate, top economist Mohamed El-Erian said. If the Fed lowers inflation to 2% too quickly, it risks "crushing" the economy, El-Erian has warned. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's inflation fight has hit a wall, and central bankers can't lower prices in the economy any further without causing damage, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. El-Erian warned last year that inflation would likely get stuck around the 3%-4% mark, thanks to persistent pressures in the economy that will push prices higher, he said. Other commentators on Wall Street have warned of the possibility of resurgent inflation as price pressures in the economy linger.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, — Organizations: Service, Allianz, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, CPI, stoke, El, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed Locations: El, That's, Red

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